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Alex Randall Kittredge's avatar

Wild to see how fast this narrative is accelerating. On one hand, Amodei’s 1–3 year timeline for AGI-level performance on “most verifiable knowledge work” feels directionally plausible when you look at tools like Claude Opus, Copilot, and AlphaCode already handling big chunks of coding and reasoning today. On the other hand, “replacing human work” is a much higher bar than matching benchmarks—real teams ship products in messy, political, ambiguous environments that aren’t easily reduced to code or math problems.

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